Summary from the IPCC’s Feb 2 report

Here’s an overview of what the IPCC report from Feb 2 contains. The full report for policymakers can be viewed here.

– – – – –

New evidence indicates that humans are driving key components of global climate change.

  • Global concentrations of CO2, methane, and nitrous oxide have increased markedly since 1750 due to human activity
  • Human activity has led to global warming
  • This warming is unequivocal
  • Climate changes have also been observed at more detailed levels, affecting ice temperatures, ocean salinity, wind patterns, precipitation amounts, heavier precipitation, heat waves, and intensity of tropical cyclones.
  • A few aspects of the climate have not been shown to have changed
  • Paleoclimate information supports this period as unusually warm for the last 1300 years.
  • Climate changes have been caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases, at greater than 90% likelihood.
  • Warming is projected at > 66% likelihood of being 0.2 degress C / decade; even if gases are held at 2000 levels, models predict 0.1 deg/decade

What is new about this report?

  • This is the first report to provide a good estimate of “climiate sensitivity” – that is, the amount by which the atmosphere would warm if CO2 emissions were to double: 3 degrees C.
  • This is the first report to demonstrate that human (anthropogenic) causes have driven atmospheric warming.
  • More aspects of the climate have been measured with better accuracy than in previous reports.

What issues does this report raise?

  • The IPCC takes a long time to present important research. Including consensus discussions amongst its 1,200 scientists. See this article from Nature for more info
  • What will the next report be about? => I’ll get to this in a future post…

What is just cool about this report?

  • Calculations of “Radiative forcing”. Radiative forcing is a measure of how much a factor influences whether there is a net influx (+) or outflux (-) of energy into the atmosphere. In other words, a factor that causes positive radiative forcing will warm the atmosphere. This report calculates that several human factors, greenhouse gases and ozone, lead to a net positive effect of humans on the warming of the atmosphere. Interestingly – several human factors, such as aerosols, create a negative forcing effect. (which is still drowned out by the positive factors).
  • The attempt to simplify scientific jargon. Levels of statistical confidence are expressed in easy-to-understand terms such as “likely” and “virtually certain”. At first I thought this was silly, but now I see that it probably has more impact on a non-scientific audience than writing, P < 0.05.
Advertisements

One comment

  1. […] the devastation that unabated emissions will probably cause. (for overview, see my previous posts here and here). The new report argues that while solutions already exist for stabilizing emissions, they […]

    Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: